2021 London cycling projections revealed

Steer Davies Gleave has today released new projections of cycle usage for 2021 mapped at a detailed level across London.

The analysis uses Census data on cycling to work from the years 2001 and 2011 to project the proportion of people that will be cycling to work at the point of the next Census in 2021. Below are three maps to illustrate the projected increase.

The analysis shows significant growth in cycling across London by 2021:

• Across London, cycling to work will become normalised
• Daily cycle commuters are set to increase to 325,000, up from 81,000 in 2001
• Inner London will see many boroughs with over 20% of people cycling to work by 2021
• In Outer London locations with no cycling to work will decrease to 7% down from 42% in 2001
• Across the capital 95% of locations will include people who cycle to work, compared to 66% in 2001

Given significant funding announced by the Mayor last week, these projections are a conservative view and illustrate the effect of continued growth in cycling levels.

Click on the images to see the full size map.

2001

2011

2021

This analysis highlights the need for Transport for London and the Boroughs to work together to deliver sufficient quality and capacity cycle infrastructure.  Plans for new cycle schemes including investment in Outer London town centres and extensive cross London routes such as Cycle Crossrail. Given these schemes, cycle demand in key Outer London locations can be expected to be even greater than illustrated in these projections.

Nick O'Donnell, Assistant Director of Strategic Transport, London Borough of Ealing said: “These projections bring to life the future demand for cycling across the capital and illustrate the scale of the potential change that will be delivered as the boroughs work to implement and build upon the Mayor’s new vision for cycling.”

About Steer Davies Gleave

Recent cycling projects in the capital include developing a North London Cycling Strategy for the North London Strategic Alliance, creating a Cycling Segmentation tool for Transport for London, a Cycle Hub Infrastructure Study for the London Borough of Hounslow and work to further develop cycling levels for the London Borough of Hackney.