Therefore, the shape of our adoption curve has very little to do with whether consumers like electric vehicles or how deeply they commit to more climate-friendly technologies and far more to do with regulatory mandate. Indeed, while the tenacity of us older folks in holding on to beloved greenhouse gas-emitting ICEs can shift the curve slightly, escalating operating costs limit how long we might be prepared to do this for.
So, the die is cast, but…
Investors love certainty, and what could be more certain than a government mandate? In regulating against ICEs, governments compel manufacturers to shift to 100% EV production by 2030 or risk losing access to key new car markets. However, global new car production comprises a stunning 100 million per year. These are huge numbers, and while governments conscientiously acknowledged the climate emergency, they may struggle to hold their mandate in the face of a challenging manufacturing transition.
Here in the UK, government has initiated a consultation on their ZEV mandate, which defines “trajectories” by which manufacturers will be held to EV supply volumes in the run-up to 2030 and beyond. While such consultation is not necessarily overdue, investors keep a keen eye out for any sign that the deadline may not hold.
It’s unlikely that the UK would fall out of step with governments around the world. However, there is a pragmatic reality around how fast manufacturers can convert to a 100% EV production. Investors are paying close attention, as it’s the pace of that adoption curve that drives predictable demand for EV charging infrastructure.